Thursday, February 16, 2012

Pistons Baffle Celtics and Statisticians Alike


February 16, 2012 – 12:36am


Right now we’re 30,000 feet above Syracuse, NY. Seems like a fitting place to lament a game lost by missing free throws.

The Celtics home court, double-digit loss to Detroit (just the 12th in the 183 home games of the New Big Three Era), ends an ugly 7 days that has the green four games out in the division, and three games out of home-court in the playoffs.  Moreover, the 15-13 record looks even shakier when it comes with a 19-9 home/road schedule disparity as we approach mid-season.  The opportunity for make-goods is plentiful of course on the road, but let’s start with this little gem…

…the Celtics now play their next five games on the road against, wait for it, five teams that have already beaten them this year…in Boston.

A common theme during the stretch in which the Celtics won 10 of 13, was defense.  How good was it? 
CELTICS DEFENSE JAN. 23-FEB. 11 (9-3)

Points Allowed        82.2*
Defensive FG%       .391**
Defensive 3FG%     .256***

* Improved from 5th to 1st in the NBA
** Improved from 12th to 1st in the NBA
*** Improved from 7th to 1st in the NBA

Enter the Pistons. 8-22, on the second night of a back-to-back, shooting under 43% from the floor. Their 87.4 points per game 28th in the NBA, only New Orleans (5-23) and Charlotte (3-25) have scored fewer points.

Two and half hours later, the Pistons came within a garbage time bucket of ending the Celtics 25-game streak of holding teams under 100 points (the longest such streak in the NBA in seven years).  How rare an offensive night was it?  Rodney Stuckey made 11 free throws and Ben Gordon made 4 three-pointers. Only Carmelo Anthony (13, 4 on Opening Day) had done that against the Celtics this year.  Entering the week, no one had made more than ten shots against Boston this year.  Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol did it last Thursday, Greg Monroe, exploiting the first game missed by Kevin Garnett this year, had 11 on Wednesday.

And if that wasn’t strange enough. Detroit entered the game last in the league in the thoroughly random but still significant free-throw defense.    Teams had shot a league best 78% against Detroit from the line this year. The Celtics, a 76% free throwing team, went 19-32, missing 13 free throws in a 10-point loss.  That…is the law of averages.

But Wednesday night’s game was notable for the scoring outburst of Rajon Rondo.  After tying his career high with 32 against the Bulls on a triple-double Sunday, the Celtics point guard and all-star snub went 15-27 from the floor on his way to his first career 35-point game.  Sitting on 27 though early in the 3rd, it looked like he was headed for a 40-point night, which would have been statistically fascinating on several levels.

The first, that it’s been six years and 466 regular season games since a Celtic scored 40.

The second, that it wasn’t Ray Allen or Paul Pierce making the charge at it.

The third, the last 40-point game by a Celtic, was Paul Pierce’s 50 point game.

And the fourth, that tonight was the 6th anniversary of that game, February 15, 2006.

(Now before we go any further, I’ve been tracking this stat for several years now, and whenever I tweet it, a small but vocal number of people start jumping up and down about Pierce’s 41 in Game 7 against the Cavs in’08, and Allen’s unforgettable 51 in Game 6 against the Bulls a year later.  So again, it’s a regular season streak.  The NBA record by the way, is 508 straight held by the Vancouver/Memphis Grizzlies from 2000 to 2006.)

It’s a fascinating streak.  It was the 23rd time since the Pierce 50 that a Celtic has gotten to 35 points (the 13th time in the Era), but no one’s been able to get the final five.

CELTICS TOP SCORING GAMES – NEW BIG 3 ERA


39 – PIERCE VS. TORONTO – JANUARY 12, 2009
37 – PIERCE @ SEATTLE – DECEMBER 27, 2007
37 – PIERCE @ CHICAGO – MARCH 17, 2009
36 – PIERCE VS. TORONTO – NOVEMBER 10, 2008
36 – R. ALLEN @ TORONTO – JANUARY 11, 2009
36 – PIERCE VS. MINNESOTA – FEBRUARY 1, 2009
36 – PIERCE VS. MIAMI – MARCH 18, 2009
35 – R. ALLEN VS. PORTLAND – JANUARY 16, 2008
35 – PIERCE VS. SAN ANTONIO – FEBRUARY 10, 2008
35 – R. ALLEN @ INDIANA – DECEMBER 7, 2008
35 – PIERCE @ ATLANTA – JANUARY 28, 2010
35 – ALLEN @ MIAMI – NOVEMBER 11, 2010
35 – RONDO VS. DETROIT – FEBRUARY 15, 2012

CELTICS TOP SCORING GAMES – SINCE LAST 40 POINT GAME


39 – PIERCE @ L.A. LAKERS – FEBRUARY 26, 2006
39 - PIERCE @ NEW YORK – NOVEMBER 18, 2006
39 – PIERCE VS. TORONTO – JANUARY 12, 2009
38 – PIERCE VS. MIAMI – MARCH 1, 2006
38 – PIERCE VS. DENVER – DECEMBER 15, 2006
37 – PIERCE @ PORTLAND – FEBRUARY 23, 2006
37 – PIERCE @ SEATTLE – DECEMBER 27, 2007
37 – PIERCE @ CHICAGO – MARCH 17, 2009
36 – PIERCE VS. DENVER – MARCH 12, 2006
36 – PIERCE VS. PHOENIX – DECEMBER 8, 2006
36 – PIERCE VS. TORONTO – NOVEMBER 10, 2008
36 – R. ALLEN @ TORONTO – JANUARY 11, 2009
36 – PIERCE VS. MINNESOTA – FEBRUARY 1, 2009
36 – PIERCE VS. MIAMI – MARCH 18, 2009
35 – PIERCE VS. CHARLOTTE - NOVEMBER 8, 2006
35 – SZCZERBIAK VS. CHARLOTTE- NOVEMBER 8, 2006
35 – PIERCE @ CHARLOTTE- DECEMBER 16, 2006
35 – R. ALLEN VS. PORTLAND – JANUARY 16, 2008
35 – PIERCE VS. SAN ANTONIO – FEBRUARY 10, 2008
35 – R. ALLEN @ INDIANA – DECEMBER 7, 2008
35 – PIERCE @ ATLANTA – JANUARY 28, 2010
35 – ALLEN @ MIAMI – NOVEMBER 11, 2010
35 – RONDO VS. DETROIT – FEBRUARY 15, 2012

The parable of the streak, of course, is that it hasn't been for a lack of star power. The Celtics have won over 60% of their games in the six years since and nearly 70% of the games they've played in the New Big Three Era.

And the night Paul Pierce had his 50? The Celtics lost that game, as they did tonight.

Rondo didn’t end the 40-point streak, but did end the not-nearly-as-glamorous six year run of no Celtics making 15 shots in a game, last done by Pierce a month after his 40 point game against Carmelo Anthony and Denver in March of 2006.  That game, by the way, was the last gasp for the ’06 Celtics. It got them to 29-36 and the fringe of the playoff race.  From then on they went 6-13 to end their four-year run of playoff berths   (It was also the night of the Sopranos season premiere on HBO, that featured your two favorite announcers in the background of a pizzeria mob hit. #UselessTrivia)

For the record, no Celtic has made more than Rondo’s 15 shots in a regulation game since Antoine Walker (volume shooter) made 17 in a Sunday afternoon game in Toronto nine years ago.

MOST FIELD GOALS IN A GAME – SINCE 2001


17 – WALKER @ TORONTO – MARCH 2, 2003
17 – PIERCE VS. CLEVELAND – FEBRUARY 15, 2006
16 – PIERCE VS. DENVER – JANUARY 24, 2003
15 – PIERCE @ WASHINGTON – MARCH 11, 2002
15 – WALKER VS NEW YORK – MARCH 5, 2003
15 – PIERCE VS. DENVER – MARCH 12, 2006
15 – RONDO VS. DETROIT – FEBRUARY 15, 2012
14 – WALKER @ NEW YORK – DECEMBER 11, 2001*
14 – PIERCE @ NEW YORK – NOVEMBER 2, 2002
14 – PIERCE VS. ATLANTA – NOVEMBER 22, 2002
14 – PIERCE VS. PHOENIX – JANUARY 28, 2005
14 – DAVIS @ ATLANTA – APRIL 1, 2005
14 – DAVIS @ DETROIT – NOVEMBER 15, 2005
14 – DAVIS @ SACRAMENTO – DECEMBER 30, 2005
14 -  PIERCE VS. PHOENIX – FEBRUARY 1, 2006
14 – PIERCE @ PORTLAND – FEBRUARY 23, 2006
14 – JEFFERSON @ ORLANDO – APRIL 15, 2007
14 – PIERCE VS. MIAMI – MARCH 18, 2009


MOST FIELD GOALS IN A GAME – NEW BIG THREE ERA


15 – RONDO VS. DETROIT – FEBRUARY 15, 2012
14 – PIERCE VS. MIAMI – MARCH 18, 2009
13 – GARNETT VS. DETROIT – MARCH 5, 2008
13 – R. ALLEN @ INDIANA – DECEMBER 7, 2008
13 – PIERCE VS. TORONTO – JANUARY 12, 2009
13 – PIERCE VS. MINNESOTA – FEBRUARY 1, 2009
13 – RONDO @ PHOENIX – FEBRUARY 22, 2009
13 – PIERCE @ CHICAGO – MARCH 17, 2009
13 – GARNETT VS. PHOENIX – NOVEMBER 6, 2009
13 – ALLEN @ MIAMI – NOVEMBER 11, 2010
13 – ALLEN VS. SAN ANTONIO – JANUARY 5, 2011

And so the Celtics embark on the daunting road portion of their schedule.  14 of the next 19 away from Boston.  And we reach the end of another statistical manifesto, and the first NBA-related piece written in the last week with absolutely no mention of Jeremy Lin.

Wait, does that count?

Damn.

Please forgive my late-night Lin-discretion.



3 comments:

  1. good read. tough game to be at. detroit just played harder down the stretch.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Sean, thoroughly enjoy your blog posts and tweets - you must have many silent fans of your work, don't let a (sometimes) lack of comments from followers stop your great job online in addition to your radio and other commitments...

    Kind regards, Adam in Australia...

    ReplyDelete
  3. I am hopeful that the new Big 3 will still be intact when they play the 76ers on March 7th in Philly cause I would like to see them one more time in person before the trade deadlinie. Something has to be done to get this team competitive on a nightly basis again. Either that or they're playing for a good spot in the draft, which is too hard to watch based on last night's effort.

    ReplyDelete